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271407077
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility": 2 (Incerto)
Barang #:
271407077
IDR 576240
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What Stands Out
Conceptual Insights
Offers profound insights into randomness and unpredictability, empowering readers to understand complex scenarios and prepare for the unforeseen, making it essential for strategists and decision-makers.
Updated Content
Includes a new section on robustness and fragility, equipping readers with modern perspectives on navigating uncertainty in various fields, enhancing the practical relevance of the theories presented.
Influential Writing
From a renowned author, this book has influenced finance, economics, and philosophy, appealing to academics and professionals seeking to challenge conventional thinking and foster innovative strategies.
Rincian Produk
- The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
| Publisher | Random House Publishing Group |
| Publication date | 11 May 2010 |
| Edition | 2nd Edition |
| Language | English |
| Print length | 480 pages |
| ISBN-10 | 081297381X |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0812973815 |
| Item weight | 1.05 kg |
| Dimensions | 13.08 x 2.54 x 20.19 cm |
| Book 2 of 5 | Incerto |
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Paperback Research & Measurement Editorial Review
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: On Robustness and Fragility: 2 Incerto is a thought-provoking read that delves into the unpredictability of events that shape our lives, echoing themes found in Daniel Kahneman's work. With its rich content spanning 480 pages, this edition offers insights into managing the unexpected challenges we face both socially and professionally. While some readers appreciate the complexity and depth Taleb provides, others find moments where the narrative can feel fragmented or overly technical. Nevertheless, its overall impact on how we perceive uncertainty and risk makes it an important addition to any reader's library.
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- Engaging insights into unpredictability and risk management
- Challenging conventional assumptions about forecasting
- Well-structured with a focus on philosophical implications
- Appealing to those interested in economics and societal events
- Encourages critical thinking and reflection on life's uncertainties
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- Some readers may find the pacing uneven at times
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IDR 576240
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